September 12-14
Iran’s recession has ended and the economy is growing once again, President Rohani and Economy Minister Ali Tayeb-nia proclaimed last week.
Speaking at a ceremony last week, Tayeb-nia said he has every hope that the economy will continue growing from quarter to quarter.
The minister did not cite any statistics, but said, “While the number is low, it still points toward growth.”
At Friday prayers, presidential spokesman Mohammad-Baqer Nobakht said the economy has recorded growth measuring one half of a percentage point, though he didn’t say over what period of time.
However, he said that by Now Ruz the growth rate for the full Persian year should be about 2 percent, significantly better than the 1.5 percent the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted last year for 2014.
Rohani joined in with his own announcement during a speech in Mashhad Saturday. The series of announcements did not get the attention one would expect in a country that has been so buffeted economically in recent years, making one wonder if the media and public did not really believe the official claim.
In the Persian year that ended last Now Ruz, the government reported that the economy shrank 1.9 percent. It shrank more than 5 percent the previous year.
In his speech in Mashhad, Rohani further said that it was time for the regime to cede the economy to the private sector. He cited the inefficiency of the state sector as the rationale.
The economy has taken a beating in the last few years—partly from sanctions but mainly, economists generally say, from gross mismanagement during the Ahmadi-nejad years. If the economy were indeed now growing again while all the major sanctions remain intact, that would provide further evidence for those who blame the policies of the Ahmadi-nejad years for the recession.
The economy has gotten a boost recently from rising exports. In the first five months of the current Persian year (through August 22), non-oil exports were up 21 percent compared to the same period last year, the Customs Administration said.
Meanwhile, Valiollah Afkhami-rad, the new head of the Trade Promotion Organization, announced that Iran would start to offer incentives to attract more foreign investment. He said the incentives would range from simple administrative measures such as easing visa issuance on up to tax exemptions.