A year ago, Iranian drivers were averaging 66 million liters a day while Iranian refineries had a capacity of just 44 million liters. Iran had to import the difference.
A number of American congressmen thought they saw a weakness they could exploit and pushed for sanctions against international firms that sold Iran gasoline.
After two years of debate, those sanctions were passed last summer. But it was too late. Iran had had plenty of time to prepare.
The sanctions did work in the sense that most international distributors halted their business with Iran rather than face problems with the United States.
Iran, however, received some exports—from Venezuela and maybe others. But the big difference resulted from converting some petrochemical plants to refining gasoline. Then in December, the government finally started eliminating subsidies, which drove up the price of gasoline and drove down consumption.
Daily consumption now is in the range of 50-55 million liters.
The output of 80 million liters a day, announced Monday by Oil Minister Masud Mir-Kazemi, will exceed consumption by about half and allow Iran to export gasoline.
But it isn’t clear if Mir-Kazemi’s projection is reasonable. Iran has been having trouble with its years-old plan to expand gasoline output. Refinery expansions are far behind schedule. Mir-Kazemi’s announcement may have been more chest-thumping than realism.
Yet the key point is that Iran only needs to boost gasoline output from 44 million liters a day to 55 million in oder to foil the plots of the American congressmen. And that appears to have been done already.
The government says gasoline production now is 54.5 million liters daily. There is, however, no way to verify that number. But there have not been reports of long lines at gasoline stations or of customers being turned away frequently for lack of fuel in the stations.