most entirely on domestic issues, but the results may have substantial impact on American policy toward Iran, chiefly by making for much tougher US sanctions.
Congress doesn’t make foreign policy. That is chiefly under the purview of the president. But congressmen are savvy to the ways they can influence policy through legislation—with sanctions key in relation to Iran.
And two Republicans who were elevated in power by the elections have long had the Islamic Republic in their gun sites and may well take out after Tehran in the new year.
They are Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida and Eric Cantor of Virginia.
Ros-Lehtinen is Cuban-born and a strong backer of sanctions, first against Fidel Castro’s Cuba and then against the Islamic Republic of Iran. She is expected to become the new chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Ros-Lehtinen has long been a vocal supporter of the Mojahedin-e Khalq. She has pushed hard to have the group dropped from the US terrorism list, and is likely to increase those pressures in her chairman’s role.
She has long pushed for stronger sanctions on Iran. She voted for the strengthened sanctions that were approved last summer—but she complained on the floor that they were not as strong as they should be.
Eric Cantor is now the Republican whip in the House, the Number Two figure in his party. The Republican leader, Rep. John Boehner of Ohio, is expected to become speaker of the House in January with Cantor moving up to majority leader.
Cantor is the only Jewish Republican in the House. He is also a strong Zionist. A relative of his was killed some years ago in a bombing incident in Israel. In addition to vocal support for Israel, Cantor has been a vocal critic of the Islamic Republic.
He has been critical of Obama’s efforts to engage Iran in a dialogue. One year ago, he wrote, “There is absolutely no evidence that Iran is willing to reach any agreement acceptable on US terms—much less use negotiations for any purpose other than to buy more time for its illicit nuclear enrichment activities.”
It is anticipated that the combination of Ros-Lehtinen and Cantor will move new sanctions legislation to the floor of the House early in 2011. Some Republicans judge tough sanctions legislation as a win-win idea—if the legislation becomes law, they have what they want; and if President Obama vetoes the legislation, they have a sure-fire political issue with which to whip Obama, portraying him as weak on Iran.
The main problem with this scenario is that the US Senate will still have a bare Democratic majority of 53-47. The question is whether that is enough to stop the legislation or if four Democratic senators will join the Republicans in approving tougher sanctions and sending the legislation to Obama’s desk.
The election results could also undo the new closeness in Russian-American relations and prompt Russia to move closer to Iran again. Russia wants three things out of the US Congress: approval of the new strategic arms treaty; repeal of some ancient trade restrictions so Russia can join the World Trade Organization; and passage of an agreement that will allow close nuclear cooperation. All are now in danger. If Obama cannot get them passed, Russia may give up on its “reset” in relations with Washington and Tehran may look better in Moscow’s eyes. The S-300 missile sale to Iran may yet be revived.
by Warren L. Nelson