February 07 2020
In a move that horrified the Islamic Republic, three countries—Britain, France and Germany—have all formally accused Iran of breaking the 2015 agreement that limited its nuclear program, taking the first step that could end with UN sanctions being re-imposed on Iran.
The European countries started the clock running—albeit theoretically—on what could be some 60 days of negotiations with Iran about coming back into full compliance with the nuclear deal. Under the agreement, if they cannot resolve their dispute, they could send it to the UN Security Council, which could revive its sanctions on Iran. China and Russia would not be able to veto that decision.
However, 10 days after the dramatic announcement, The Wall Street Journal reported that the three countries do not plan to take the issue before the UN Security Council as long as Iran restrains its nuclear expansion. The newspaper quoted unnamed European diplomats as saying this. Rather importantly, the diplomats did not say how much Iran could expand its nuclear work without triggering a trip to the Security Council.
Then the new EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell of Spain, said he wouldn’t call the meeting of the parties to the agreement until February, so the clock would not start ticking yet.
The three European countries clearly felt that they had to respond to Iran’s movement away from compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
In a joint statement issued January 14, the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany said that they had warned Iran December 6 that “unless it reversed course, we would have no choice but to take action,” but Iran “has chosen to further reduce compliance.”
The Europeans reiterated that they opposed President Trump’s withdrawal from the deal and were not joining his campaign of “maximum pressure” to cripple Iran economically. “Our hope is to bring Iran back into full compliance,” they said.
The Europeans decided to move because Iran announced earlier in January that it would no longer abide by any restrictions on its uranium enrichment. However, it did not say specifically what it would actually do.
So the world is now faced with a double threat—Iran threatening it will enrich more unless Europe resumes serious trade with Iran, while Europe threatens to resume sanctions if Iran does not reduce enrichment.
Over the last several months, Iran has progressively said it would no longer comply with one after another of the JCPOA’s restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. The one major restriction left untouched until this month was the cap on the number of centrifuges Iran was allowed to spin.
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas of Germany said, “We could no longer leave unanswered the increasing Iranian violations of the nuclear agreement.
French Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian said the “only solution” to the crisis was for Iran to agree to return to talks with the United States and the other five powers that would extend the JCPOA restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program further into the future, add restrictions on its missiles and its regional military activity, all in exchange for a reduction in US sanctions.
German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer confirmed a published news story saying that Trump had threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on German car imports if the three European countries did not start the proceedings against Iran. She confirmed the threat, but neither she nor anyone else said if the threat played any role in the countries’ decision.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif called the decision “a strategic mistake” by the Europeans.
President Rohani went further and actually threatened European troops. “Today, the American soldier is in danger; tomorrow, the European soldier could be in danger.” Actually that is already true. When Iran fired missiles at an Iraqi base in January, Danish troops were huddled in bunkers along with American troops. Rohani said, “You will suffer if you take a wrong move.”
A week after the three European powers acted, Iran announced that it would “consider” withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if the JCPOA dispute actually went to the UN Security Council. Many newspapers and news agencies wrongly reported that Iran said it would withdraw. But it only said it would “consider” withdrawing, something it also said at least three times in 2018.
The NPT includes Iran’s pledge not to build nuclear weapons. But after saying it would consider withdrawing, Iran announced that it would never build any nuclear weapons. So, if it did actually withdraw, the main result is that it would lose the nuclear assistance that China, Russia and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) give it under the treaty. Withdrawal could also be used by the US to justify an attack on Iran’s nuclear installations.
Iran did not say what it thought it would gain by withdrawing from the NPT. The only country ever to withdraw is North Korea. Four countries have not signed the NPT—Israel, India and Pakistan, which all have nuclear weapons, and Sudan, which does not have any nuclear program. Iran often denounces Israel for not signing, but never criticizes Pakistan or India.
Even if UN sanctions are reinstated — something the Europeans do not want to do — they would not likely make a significant economic difference to Iran, given the crippling impact of the separate American sanctions re-imposed by Trump. The main economic loss to Iran would be access to European products from firms that still sell to Iran. Most of them are small companies that do no business in the United States and thus have nothing to fear from the US sanctions.
The political impact would likely be greater than the economic impact, as few countries that are not already pariah states would likely have much to do with Iran. Some would probably agree to buy some Iranian oil—but the discounts they would demand would vastly reduce any income Iran could earn.
The European statement triggered what is called the “dispute resolution process.” That starts with a meeting of Iran and diplomats from the other JCPOA signers—minus the US because of its withdrawal. They have 15 days in which to agree on a solution.
If they cannot resolve the matter, it goes to the foreign ministers of the signatory states, who have 15 days to agree.
If no compromise has yet been reached, the dispute can be kicked to the Security Council, which must vote within 30 days on whether to reinstate sanctions. Nine of the 15 members must vote aye for the sanctions to be re-imposed. If the UN Security Council fails to act, the sanctions will automatically be re-imposed after 30 days.