The Council of Guardians hasn’t yet issued its list of approved Majlis candidates, but parties all already out with their own lists, some of which may need to be revised when the final candidate list comes out and some anticipated names are missing.
The election is only two weeks from today.
The conservatives were long expected to split and present two separate slates. But a third has now emerged. Both conservatives groups have turned their backs on Ali Motahari, one of the most prominent conservatives in the current Majlis, but with a considerable independent streak.
When he was rejected for the establishment slates, Motahari swiftly put together his own slate of 20 candidates for the Tehran seats.
Motahari is widely known for his staunch opposition to President Ahmadi-nejad. As the face of that movement, his slate could stand to do quite well in the capital, a city long hostile to Ahmadi-nejad.
Reformists, who have long talked about boycotting the elections, have so far produced a slate of 28 candidates in Tehran and 58 elsewhere around the country. While the Green Movement is calling for a boycott, many other long-time reformists—especially those who won seats in the Majlis four years ago—are opposed to a boycott. There are reports that rival bands of reformists may issue other slates, threatening to divide the already limited reformist vote.
One question is whether the reformist slate(s) and the Mota-hari slate will end up competing for the anti-Ahmadi-nejad vote.
The main conservative group, called the United Front of Principleists, has produced a slate of candidates for all across the country. But the conservatives are anything but unified.
First, there is Motahari’s competing group.
Then a batch of disappointed candidates formed the Insight and Islamic Awakening Front to produce a rival slate with Shahabeddin Sadr, the second deputy speaker of the Majlis, as its leader. News reports said the Council of Guardians has disqualified him from running for re-election but his supporters deny that.
Next, the conservative Resistance Front has broken away and produced its own list of 200 candidates for the 290 Majlis seats, including candidates for all 30 Tehran seats. There is overlap between the Resistance Front slate and the United Front of Principleists slate.
More conservative slates are anticipated.
This fractioning of political groupings into multiple slates is the norm. When some figure is left off a major endorsement slate, he often goes out and produces his own slate. Usually the core slate of a movement is obvious and the others fade into oblivion. But Motahari is so well-known, he may well pose a threat to the United Front of Principleists.
The slate of the United Front of Principleists is headed in Tehran by Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, who was speaker of the Majlis until he was ousted four years ago by Ali Larijani. Other prominent conservative incumbents who are running on that slate include Ahmad Tavakkoli, Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, Asadollah Badamchian and Zohreh Elahian, one of the most outspoken female members of the Majlis.
The Ahmadi-nejad faction hasn’t yet announced its own slate.
Sajad Salek, a Tehran-based political analyst, said, “The election is hot among political factions, but cold among the people.” In fact, with the economy in a tailspin and prices rising daily in the shops, the elections are only in the background of public conversations.
Salek also said, “Supporters of Ahmadi-nejad may be defeated in the major cities, but they have a chance in small cities and towns.”