February 07-2014
The head of US intelligence last week slammed down Israelis and others who argue that Iran could make a big rush and build a nuclear weapon before Washington knew what was happening.
James R. Clapper, the director of national intelligence, described the US intelligence community’s view of Iran in his annual “threat assessment” presented to Congress.
He predicted that Iran’s perceived need to defend Shias wherever they live would further exacerbate growing Sunni-Shia frictions in the Islamic world—a trend that threatens Iran’s goal of being the key player in the Islamic world.
On the nuclear issue, Clapper said, “Iran would not be able to divert safeguarded material and produce enough weapons grade uranium for a weapon before such activity would be discovered.”
Critics, however, noted that he qualified his remarks by referring to the diversion of “safeguarded material”—that is, material the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is watching—and did not address the issue of whether Iran might have some hidden enrichment sites producing enriched uranium the IAEA knows nothing about.
Turning from the nuclear issue, Clapper said the US Intelligence Community—comprised of 17 different intelligence agencies scattered around the government and overseen by Clapper—doesn’t yet have any idea whether President Rohani really wants to make fundamental changes in how the Islamic Republic is run.
“President Rohani has heralded a shift in political momentum in Iran toward the center, but we do not know whether he heralds a reversal of the authoritarian trend in Iranian politics during the past many years,” Clapper said.
He said the economy “will continue to struggle without comprehensive sanctions relief, which drives Rohani and his team of technocrats to pursue nuclear negotiations.” That was effectively a repudiation of the constant refrain heard in Tehran that sanctions have nothing to do with Iran’s decision to get serious in the nuclear talks.
Clapper warned that hardliners in Iran “have consistently argued that sanctions fatigue will eventually break the international sanctions coalition and are wary of Rohani’s engagement with the West.” The Obama Administration is very worried about sanctions fatigue and has sent officials all over the globe in recent weeks to warn government and businesses and banks that Obama is not slackening off its enforcement of sanctions.
Clapper then gave a broad summary of Iranian foreign policy.
“Iran will continue to act assertively abroad in ways that run counter to US interests and worsen regional conflicts. Iranian officials almost certainly believe that their support has been instrumental in sustaining [Bashar al-]Assad’s regime in Syria and will probably continue support during 2014 to bolster the regime.
“In the broader Middle East, Iran will continue to provide arms and other aid to Palestinian groups, Huthi rebels in Yemen, and Shia militants in Bahrain to expand Iranian influence and to counter perceived foreign threats. Tehran, which strives for a stable Shia-led, pro-Iran government in Baghdad, is concerned about the deteriorating security situation in Iraq. Tehran is probably struggling to find the balance between protecting Shia equities in Iraq and avoiding overt actions that would precipitate greater anti-Shia violence.
“In Afghanistan, Tehran will probably seek its own additional security agreements with Kabul, promote pro-Iranian candidates in the 2014 presidential election to increase its influence at the expense of the United States, and maintain its clandestine aid to Afghan insurgent groups.” Clapper said.
A key new issue confronting Tehran is the rapid rise in Sunni-Shia frictions all around the Islamic world. Clapper concluded that the Islamic Republic sees such frictions as a threat to its goal of being a major player in the Islamic world—but views its responsibly as the main Shia state in the world to support Shias wherever they are as a more important role.
Clapper said, “Iran sees rising sectarianism as a dangerous regional development, but we assess that Iran’s perceived responsibility to protect and empower Shia communities will increasingly trump its desire to avoid sectarian violence. Hence, Iran’s actions will likely do more to fuel rather than dampen increasing sectarianism.”
He said Iran’s “overarching strategic goals” are “enhancing its security, prestige, and regional influence.”
Clapper discussed Iran’s nuclear goals in more detail than previously and with more nuance than most discussions in the United States use. He said Iran has stopped trying to build an actual bomb but continues to try to master all the technology needed to do just that. As to whether Iran will eventually build a bomb, he said the US Intelligence Community does not know—presumably because the regime in Tehran does not know. At this moment, he said, Tehran sees the need for economic relief to be more important.
“We judge that Iran is trying to balance conflicting objectives,” Clapper said. “It wants to improve its nuclear and missile capabilities while avoiding severe repercussions—such as a military strike or regime-threatening sanctions. We do not know if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.
“Tehran has made technical progress in a number of areas—including uranium enrichment, nuclear reactors, and ballistic missiles—from which it could draw if it decided to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons. These technical advancements strengthen our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons. This makes the central issue its political will to do so,” Clapper concluded, leaving open the question of whether it has that political will.
Going back more than a decade, the US Intelligence Community has predicted that Iran could not develop ballistic missiles capable of striking the United States before 2015. Clapper did not repeat that date. Instead, he said, “We judge that Iran would choose a ballistic missile as its preferred method of delivering nuclear weapons, if Iran ever builds these weapons. Iran’s ballistic missiles are inherently capable of delivering WMD [weapons of mass destruction, meaning chemical, biological and nuclear weapons], and Iran already has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.
“Iran’s progress on space launch vehicles—along with its desire to deter the United States and its allies—provides Tehran with the means and motivation to develop longer-range missiles, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM),” a missile with the range to reach North America. That was a lot of words that simply sidestepped the key question: Is Iran seeking a missile that can reach the United States?