August 06, 2021
A new analysis of Iran-China relations concludes that the two countries are brought closer together largely because they both seek to foil US influence in the world but argues China won’t get too close to Iran because it has major interests with Saudi Arabia and other Arab counties that it does not want to endanger.
The 31-page report, “China-Iran Relations: A Limited but Enduring Strategic Partnership,” was released June 28 by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a US government funded academic institution.
The commission was created by the US Congress in October 2000 to monitor, investigate and submit to Congress an annual report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the China.
The new report examines China’s deepening ties with Iran and the geopolitical constraints on the relationship. It analyzes increased Sino-Iranian economic coordination China is Iran’s top import and export market and a critical investor in energy and transportation infrastructure and how that coordination undermines the effectiveness of US policies, like sanctions. The report also assesses China’s proliferation of technology supporting Iran’s ballistic missile program and the threat the two countries’ intelligence sharing and military partnerships pose to US security.
The report has five key findings.
First, it concludes the China-Iran relationship is rooted in limited pragmatic cooperation but has evolved in recent years into a partnership more pointedly opposed to the US-led international order. Beijing views Tehran’s opposition to the United States as augmenting China’s increasing global influence, evidenced in part by Iran’s proliferation of Chinese anti-US dis-information during the corona-virus pandemic.
The Iranian regime’s destabilizing actions in the Middle East also benefit China by complicating US efforts to shift its focus to the Indo-Pacific.
For its part, Iran views China as a critical economic lifeline and diplomatic supporter against pressure from the United States. The 25-year cooperation agreement signed in March 2021 is the latest indication of the two sides’ willingness to coordinate more closely.
Second, the report says that one factor limiting China’s partnership with Iran is the Chinese government’s apprehension over the prospect of armed conflict between Iran and the United States. Any conflict with Iran could destabilize the energy markets China relies on to fuel its growth.
Beijing also benefits from the stabilizing effect of the US military presence in the Middle East, which allows China to free-ride on the United States’ regional security guarantee.
Third, China’s growing involvement in the broader Middle East places another important limit on Sino-Iranian relations. Over the last two decades, China’s deepening diplomatic, economic, and military ties with Iran’s regional adversaries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have forced China to strike a balance between its relationship with Iran and these emerging partners. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime eagerly seeks Chinese trade and investment but remains wary of becoming overly reliant on China economically.
Fourth, China has sustained its status as Iran’s top economic partner despite significantly reducing economic engagement due to its partial compliance with US sanctions. Nevertheless, various circumvention methods have allowed China to continue buying Iranian oil in violation of these sanctions.
As Iran’s primary oil customer, China provides an economic lifeline to the Iranian regime while deepening its leverage over the country. By also investing in Iran’s energy infrastructure and regional integration, China seeks to improve its future access to Iranian energy and raw materials.
Fifth, China and Iran maintain modest defense cooperation and share intelligence, reportedly including information that led to the dismantling of much of the US espionage network in both countries a decade ago.
China has supported Iran’s missile programs for decades. Despite Tehran’s interest in procuring advanced weapons from China, Beijing may hesitate to sell the requested arms out of concern over jeopardizing relations with its Persian Gulf Arab partners.