imports by 15 to 30 percent, Chamber of Commerce President Mohammad Nahavan-dian acknowledged last week.
It was the first time a person in authority had revealed such a hefty cost to sanctions, although some private businessmen have spoken of costs going up as high as 30 percent.
Nahavandian said, “Sanctions can’t halt the importation of goods into Iran, but estimates indicate that the cost of imports has increased 15 to 30 percent.”
A few days later, Commerce Minister Mehdi Qazanfari played down the impact of sanctions, denying that they were doing Iran any damage. Repeating the most common official rhetoric, Qazanfari called sanctions “ineffective.” He said sanctions “have not affected our trade with other countries so far.” But he neglected to address the issue of costs.
Sanctions, as a practical matter, do not stop Iran from buying anything it wants. But Iran must pay more and wait longer to get the goods it wants.
Qazanfari ignored the time and cost questions, suggesting that he felt to acknowledge them might feed opposition to the government’s confrontational foreign policies.
As proof of the ineffectiveness of sanctions, he said the UN would not have had to impose four sets of sanctions if they were really having an impact.
That comment addresses the core issue, which is whether the sanctions will be painful enough to cause Iran to change its nuclear policy. Many in the West believe they will have that effect. But CIA Director Leon Panetta said a few months ago that he did not believe the existing sanctions would induce Iran to change policy. The sanctions may cause pain, but not enough pain to force the government to make concessions.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury Department last week announced sanctions on 37 Iranian companies. All were described as front companies established in recent months to hide the Iranian ownership of ships. Iran has been rapidly changing the names of its ships as well as shuffling owners and registering them in different countries ever since the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) was put under sanctions. Every few weeks, the Treasury Department plays catch-up by sanctioning more front companies it has uncovered.