While it is possible that Iranians have been dying off like flies or moving back to Iran in vast numbers, neither is unlikely. Most likely, Iranians simply failed to identify themselves as such on their Census forms in April 2010.
The Census asked people to identify themselves by race, using standard categories such as “white” and “black” and “Asian.” The form allowed people to write in some other designation—but it was an individual’s choice. Many Iranian-American groups banded together to ask Iranians-Americans to identify themselves as such on the Census form. But many may have just checked the “white” or “Asian” block and let it go at that.
That appears to be the most likely explanation for the 14 percent drop to 289,465 reported Iranian-Americans in 2010. The 2000 US Census found 338,266 Iranian-Americans, an increase of 53 percent over the 220,714 found in the 1990 Census.
All these numbers are still far from the 1 million often cited in the Iranian-American community.
The Census number applies to everyone who claims Iranian ethnicity. The Census covers everyone physically present in the United States so that the number includes citizens, Green Card holders, students, visitors—even illegals, although they usually hide from Census takers.
People identify their ethnicity for the Census on their own. Anyone who says he or she is Iranian is counted. They may only have one great-grandparent who was Iranian, but if they say they are Iranian, they are counted as Iranian by the Census.
The accompanying map shows the reported Iranian-American population by state. While the actual numbers are likely to be low, the proportional distribution around the country is likely accurate.
This shows that more than half of all Iranian-Americans—54 percent to be precise—live in California. It also shows that California has 7.7 times as many Iranians as the Number Two state, Texas.
While every one of the 50 states reports some Iranian-Americans, the Iranian population is heavily clustered within the top five states accounting for 73 percent of the total.
Here are the top five and the percentage of national Iranian-American population reported in each:
California 157,225 54.3%
Texas 20,440 7.0%
New York 12,095 4.2%
Virginia 11,835 4.1%
Maryland 10,045 3.5%
The bulk of the California residents are assumed to be in the Los Angeles and Orange County area. The Virginia and Maryland residents are believed concentrated in the suburbs of Washington, DC.
The five states (plus Puerto Rico) reporting the least number of Iranians—all fewer than 100—are:
South Dakota 40
Puerto Rico 45
Wyoming 70
Montana 75
Alaska 80
Vermont 85
Together these six jurisdictions account for only 14/100ths of 1 percent of all the Iranians living in the United States.
In the 2000 Census, these same six jurisdictions were the least popular. Except for Spanish-speaking Puerto Rico, all are snowy, largely rural, northern tier states.
Within the Iranian-American community, it is the norm to say there are more than 1 million Iranian-Americans. In fact, in 2002, the National Iranian-American Council (NIAC) announced its intention to “disprove” the 2000 Census number if it showed fewer than 1 million Iranian-Americans.
But the Census Bureau does not claim there are only 289,465 Iranian-Americans. In fact, it warns that its numbers for Iranian-Americans—and all other ethnic groups—“may be of poor quality and under represent groups.” The Census Bureau did not even want to ask this question on its forms because it didn’t think it would produce reliable data.
It notes that the statistics on such groups as Iranian-Americans “only represent people who went out of their way to write in these particular responses…. Caution is advised when examining and discussing these 2010 Census results.”
There is a rumor that periodically goes through the Iranian community alleging that if 1 million people identify themselves as Iranian on the Census, federal funds would then be made available exclusively for Iranians. That is inaccurate; there is not and never has been such a program.