February 2, 2024
President Biden started his retaliation against Iran for the deaths of three US Army enlisted troops by not attacking any targets in Iran. The rial immediately recovered some of its lost value on the Tehran market.
The rial went from 582,000 to the dollar before the Biden air raids to 567,000 after the air raids, suggesting the Iranian public was relieved not to have been targeted.
In the dark hours early February 3, the US armed forces bombed targets in western Iraq and eastern Syria, far from Iran.
By the official Pentagon numbers, over a period of 30 minutes “numerous” US planes launched 125 “precision-guided munitions” (guided bombs and air-to-ground missiles) at 85 “targets” (mostly buildings) within seven military installations used by militias sponsored by Iran.
The initial death toll was 39, mostly militia members and none Iranian nationals.
The Islamic Republic dismissed the US action as “inconsequential,” which some feared meant Iran would continue encouraging attacks on US bases and American military personnel in the Middle East. If that is what happens, pressure will grow on Biden to strike targets inside Iran. Even before the February 3 retaliation, GOP leaders had generally urged that he attack Iran itself.
And, in fact, the US raids did not stop attacks on US bases. The day after the US raids, rockets were fired at a site in Syria where US troops are stationed. There were no casualties.
In Tehran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani condemned the American attacks, saying they were “violations of the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Iraq and Syria. This was an odd response given that less than a week earlier the Islamic Republic had fired missiles at targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan. It came across as a case of “do as we say, not as we do.”
The Pentagon and White House emphasized that the February 3 attacks were only the “start” of retaliation for the earlier deaths of three US Army soldiers. It didn’t give any indication what would be hit in the future or when. Before the first round of attacks, officials said none would be launched on Iran itself. But after that first round, when national security adviser Jake Sullivan appeared on the Meet the Press and was asked repeatedly if Iran was exempt, he refused repeatedly to answer.
The US Central Command said, “The facilities that were struck included command and control operations centers, intelligence centers, rockets and missiles and unmanned aerial vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC [Pasdaran] sponsors.” In other words, the US was trying to destroy the equipment the militia groups used to attack US sites and the command centers that organized attacks.
It is almost certain that the attacks substantially reduced the stock of weapons in the hands of the militias. But it isn’t likely they were wiped out. And the militias aren’t fighting anyone other than the Americans now so they don’t have to withhold any supplies. As for command centers, an attack by rockets or drones can be planned from the front seat of a pickup truck.
The categories of targets were the same as US aircraft had attacked in about eight raids conducted since the start of the Hamas-Israel war and in response to the constant drone attacks on US sites in Iraq and Syria. Jason Brodsky, policy director of the Washington-based United Against Nuclear Iran, said, “Nothing that’s public suggest to me anything of strategic value was hit. While the quantity of targets may have increased, the quality has more or less stayed the same.”
The attacks in western Iraq brought considerable criticism from Iraqi politicians. They did not object so much to the death and destruction, but rather complained that the United States was violating Iraqi “sovereignty.”
In an apparent effort to dramatize the February 3 raids, and in addition to “numerous aircraft” based in the region, the US Air Force used two B-1 bombers that were flown from bases in the middle of the United States. The US Air Force has more than enough planes for such raids based at Al-Udaid Air Base in Qatar; the B-1s were just icing on the cake to indicate that the United States is not dependent on bases in the region to do damage. In effect, the US was dismissing Iran’s primary goal of driving US forces out of the region by saying the US doesn’t have to have forces in the region to inflict pain.
The US generally likes to conduct such operations with allies to show it is not alone in the world. Almost always, that means Britain. The British did not participate this time. However, news reports said the Jordanian Air Force sent some planes to join the raids. In recent weeks, Jordan has bombed some Syrian sites on its own as its has grown furious with the Syrian government for promoting drug sales in Jordan to raise revenues.
Local news reports said 16 people, including some civilians, died in Iraq and 23 people, all militia members, died in Syria. The attacks were conducted in the pre-dawn hours and the dead were likely guards at the installations.
Based on the low death toll of 39, the raids appeared focused almost entirely on weapons storage depots rather than troop barracks, which were not mentioned in the target list. In fact, video taken from the ground near one target showed rockets soaring up into the air as rockets stored at the bombed site cooked off and launched into the sky.
Iraqi and Syrian militias sponsored by Iran have sent missiles and drones against US bases in those countries 166 times since the Hamas-Israel war broke out October 7 without killing any American troops until January 28. That says a lot about the quality of the missiles and drones used. They were mostly shot down by US air defenses or malfunctioned and never got near their targets. Some did get through, however, but did not explode on any high value site until the 166th attack.
The US retaliation was prompted by the deaths of three Army reservists from Georgia who were stationed at Tower 22, a US installation housing about 350 US troops in the northeast corner of Jordan, near where Jordan, Iraq and Syria all come together. The base is about 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the much larger US military installation at Tanf, just across the border in Syria.
The three were killed January 28 when a drone believed launched by Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia supported by Iran, hit a barracks where the three Americans were bunked with others. Pentagon sources said Tower 22 (which is not a tower but a sprawling base) was protected by an air defense system designed to scan the sky for drones or missiles and then fire automatically when any were detected. That night, however, Tower 22 had sent out a drone on a reconnaissance mission. As it was returning, the air defense system was turned off. But the Iranian-made drone was on its way toward Tower 22 at the very same time. It was the first time any militia targeted Tower 22.
Weeks ago, another Iranian-made missile struck a US barracks in Syria, but the warhead was a dud and did not go off. This all suggests the Iranian arms are not very good, although oddly journalists have not been seen to point that out.
In the Red Sea, the Houthis have launched drones and anti-ship missiles at US warships and commercial vessels. Every single anti-ship missile detected by a US ship coming at it has been shot out of the sky. At least two commercial ships have been hit by Iranian-made weapons. One essentially dented the ship. The other started a fire which did extensive damage to one localized part of that ship. But the ship was so big that, once the fire was extinguished, the ship simply continued on its way. All in all, Iranian-made weaponry is not proving very impressive. Even in Ukraine, officials say the vast majority of Iranian drones have been shot out of the sky, many by single servicemen firing their rifles at the drones as they fly slowly overhead.
The Iranian drones are very cheap, however, so the minority that do get through have done major damage cheaply to Ukraine’s electric power plants, which have been one of the primary targets the drones have been aimed at.
The American media have tended to portray the Iranian drones as a deadly weapon without pointing how few have done any damage in the Middle East or Ukraine.
In the US, Republicans generally complained that Biden had waited too long to retaliate and had just ignored injuries to US troops, waiting until someone was killed. But that ignored the fact that President Donald Trump publicly and personally vowed to retaliate if any American troops were killed, but never pledged to retaliate for injuries to US troops and never did retaliate for injuries.
Biden announced he had decided how to retaliate January 30, but the attacks were not launched until almost 100 hours later. After Biden spoke, Iran announced it was withdrawing many “senior” Pasdar officers assigned to Syria. That was seen as a reaction to six Pasdar generals being killed in recent weeks in Israeli attacks on Syrian targets. But it may also have been prompted by Biden’s decision. At any rate, Iran did not announce the loss of any Iranians in the air raids.
A huge debate within the United States over the last few weeks has been over whether Iran can order the militias what to do. That question may now have been answered. After the attack on Tower 22, Brig. Gen. Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Qods Force, the branch of the Pasdaran dealing with foreign deployments, traveled to Iraq and met with militia leaders. News reports said he told them they should temper if not end their attacks on US installations. After his visit and before the US air raids, Kataib Hezbollah, one of the largest militias, announced it was suspending its attacks on the Americans. But then two smaller militias—Harakat an-Nujaba and Ashab al-Kahf—said they refused to end such attacks and would continue as in the past. That suggested Iran has influence, but not control, over the militias.
President Biden, meanwhile, spoke out after the air raids, saying, “Our response began today. It will continue at times and places of our choosing. Let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.” Note that he said he would respond to “harm” to Americans, not to the “death” of an American.