July 29, 2022
by Warren L. Nelson
President Biden has returned from his first presidential visit to the Middle East without even a single major accomplishment to show for it—not even a united Arab front against Iran.
In fact, much of the rhetoric from the Arabs amounted to repeated declarations that they would not join a US-led military alliance against the Islamic Republic. It sounded like the US effort to organize the Arabs against an Iranian threat had not only failed, but was actually marching backward.
Israel has been pushing for a unified air defense system covering the Middle East from the Iranian border to the Mediterranean Sea, which has been dubbed MEAD for Middle East Air Defense. No Arab state has spoken in support of the Israeli idea. But The New York Times reported recently that some (unnamed) Arab states tracked two drones headed toward Israel, keeping Israel posted on their flight and helping Israel shoot them down. The Times said that happened March 15, 2021, suggesting that an unacknowledged air defense alliance has been in effect for at least 16 months.
What this means is that the Arabs may be unwilling to join any formal air defense alliance, but are willing to act informally.
It must be remembered that the six Arab states of the Persian Gulf formed the Gulf Cooperation Council in 1981 as a check on the Islamic Republic and Saddam Hussein. But despite repeated prodding by Washington, in 40 years they have never done anything substantive about a joint defense. If The New York Times story is correct, they may now be acting jointly on air defense, and with Israel, albeit quietly and covertly.
Before Biden’s trip, many commentators in the US spoke often about the goal of a military alliance, even using the term “Arab NATO.” They also spoke of Biden’s goal of getting the Saudis and other Arab states to pump more crude to bring down the price of gasoline, which is very damaging to Biden politically.
That may have been a big mistake as any Arab agreement to either would have made the Arab leaders look like they were toadying to the Americans.
Instead, Arab leaders spoke out very critically of joining any kind of Arab NATO and the Saudis made a point of public saying, repeatedly, that they would not boost oil output based on any American request.
They also made a point of saying they would not join any organization dedicated to challenging the Islamic Republic—despite 40 years of doing just that.
Why the rhetorical reluctance to do anything the United States seeks? Part of the reason is undoubtedly classical Arab nationalism and the political need to show that Arabs are not subservient to outsiders.
But there is likely more. Former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who served under both President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama, said neither the Persian Gulf Arab states nor Israel believe the Biden Administration is prepared to use military power to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon.
He said this means the Arab states are “increasingly open to expanding their relationship with both China and Russia.” And the suspicion that Washington would not be there to protect them from the Islamic Republic may also have prompted them to avoid any comments of hostility to Iran while Biden was their guest—although there had been no shortage of damning rhetoric about Iran in previous months.
Anwar Gargash, foreign policy advisor to the UAE president, said during the Biden visit that the UAE wouldn’t join any anti-Iran coalition. “We are open to cooperation, but not cooperation targeting any other country in the region—and I specifically mention Iran. The UAE is not going to be a party to any group of countries that sees confrontation as a direction.”
This comes from an official of a country that has spent four decades insisting that the communiques issued after every Arab gathering contain a paragraph strongly condemning Iran for occupying Arab land, referring to three islands in the Persian Gulf, two of which have no residents.
Gargash said, “We are very clear that if something is defending the UAE and its citizens, of course, we are open to these ideas, but not to the idea of creating axes against this or that country.”
To many analysts, like Gates, the Arabs just don’t think the Biden Administration will defend because it wants to withdraw from the Middle East in order to confront China. Therefore, the line of thought continues, the Arabs had better try a diplomatic approach to Iran to avoid nuclear threats from Tehran.
But that, of course, does not account for the closer Arab ties to Israel in the last two years—burgeoning ties that incense the Islamic Republic.
Some Arab regimes are also irked by US conditions on arms sales and by its harping on human rights. Saudi Arabia and the UAE in particular are irritated by this. They also feel pushed aside because they have no role in the negotiations with Iran over reviving the nuclear deal, an agreement that mainly impacts the Arabs.
Adel al-Jubair, the Saudi minister of state, told Reuters that his country is offended by US efforts to impose US values on the Middle East. “It has not worked when the US tried to impose values on Afghanistan and Iraq,” he said, “In fact, it backfired. Countries have different values and those values should be respected.”
As Reuters observed, “The Persian Gulf states, which have refused to side with the West against Russia over Ukraine, are seeking a concrete commitment from the United States to strategic ties that have been strained over perceived US disengagement from the region.”
Or to put it in blunter terms, the Arabs want an absolute certainty that the US will defend them from Iran, but feel the US is drifting away thus they and are looking for new ways to deal with Iran. One possible way is to lower the confrontational rhetoric they have used with Iran; Saudi Arabia is now engaged in talks with Iran and the UAE has announced it will send an ambassador back to Iran. Another way is to link up militarily with Israel. A third way is to cuddle up to Moscow and Beijing in hopes they will restrain Tehran.
Gargash said, “We have to de-escalate. We have to find political solutions and we have also to use economic cooperation in various areas in order to create greater political de-escalation.”
As Karen Elliott House wrote in The Wall Street Journal, “Neither Saudi Arabia nor other Gulf states trust the US enough to make any sacrifices to renew badly frayed relations.”
Tehran-born Johns Hopkins University Prof. Vali Nasr told CNN he believes the Arab states “have made a decision that the United States is not going to war with Iran. The United States is focused on Ukraine and on China. And one of the ways of managing Iran is actually to lower the temperature with Iran.
“This does not mean that peace is in the air, but the Saudis and UAE definitely are interested in a less aggressive posture with Iran—and that’s very different from the way the Israelis are pushing for a much more aggressive position against Iran where the prime minister of Israel said we should put credible military options on the table against Iran. I don’t think Saudi Arabia and the UAE are quite there.”
In Tehran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani responded to the Biden visit saying that Washington’s policies in the region are “solely with the aim of promoting Iranophobia and division among the countries in the region.” And, he said of the air defense idea, “The Islamic Republic of Iran considers it a threat to its own national security as well as regional security.”