December 1, 2023
by Warren L. Nelson
The United States, which announced two years ago that it would be reducing its military presence in the Middle East in order to station more forces in the Far East to respond to the Chinese military buildup, has been pumping more forces back into the Middle East since Hamas raided Israeli villages.
The US Navy now has one aircraft carrier in the Indian Ocean near Iran and one in the Eastern Mediterranean near Israel. Then on November 26, the US Navy moved the carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower, accompanied by a half-dozen other warships, including a French frigate, through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, in a clear provocation aimed at Iran, which earlier claimed it had chased all American ships out of the Persian Gulf.
Actually, the movement of a carrier into the Persian Gulf is a sign the US is planning no action against Iran. If the US were planning an attack, it would first remove its ships from the waters of the gulf, since they are more vulnerable inside the Persian Gulf. The New York Times reported November 30 that the Pentagon had recommended “more aggressive” actions to be taken against Iran, but that President Biden had turned them all down.
Tehran responded by flying a drone to within 1,500 yards (meters) of the Eisenhower, the US Navy announced. The US Navy said it broadcast several warnings about the drone, but took no combat action against it.
The Pentagon also publicized, something it has not normally done before this year, that it has moved a submarine into the Indian Ocean that carries 154 Tomahawk missiles. The Tomahawk probably worries Tehran more than the aircraft carrier.
The US has also dispatched other ships, many combat aircraft, several Patriot air defense missile batteries (to protect US troops from Iranian missiles and drones) and even a landing force of about 4,000 Marines.
But despite this impressive show of force, the chances of any aggressive military action against Iran itself are close to nil. President Biden shares the widespread aversion of many Americans to “forever” wars in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic would have to do something extremely provocative before he would approve a raid (far short of an invasion) on Iran proper.
If there is an attack, it is most likely going to be a raid on some narrow targets—the Kharg Island oil loading facilities; some of Iran’s nuclear sites (not including the Bushehr power plant, which is not a threat); the hundreds of small gunboats that the US Navy is most concerned about because of their huge numbers; underground storage sites for missiles; manufacturing plants for drones and missiles.
The US military forces are not there to aid Israel; Israel wants no military involvement that would constrict its ability to do whatever it wants to do. The US role is to provide intelligence—American spy drones fill the skies of Gaza and to funnel immense amounts of “consum-ables,” chiefly ammunition, to the Israeli fighting forces.
The US military forces are in the region primarily to deter Iran but they don’t seem to be doing a very good job at that. Since mid-October, the militias backed by Iran in Iraq and Syria have fired every single day but one against at least one of the 14 sites in Iraq and Syria where the United States has troops. The attacks began the day after a missile hit a hospital in Gaza. Most of the world blamed Israel for violating international law by attacking a hospital. But the evidence gathered later suggested the missile was actually fired by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), had a malfunctioning engine, and fell accidentally on the hospital grounds.
The US Air Force has retaliated four times for more than 60 militia attacks. No American has yet been killed, and, of the more than 60 thus far injured, every single person has since returned to duty, indicating that the injuries have all been minor. So, while the continued daily militia attacks show the US deterrence impact has been nil, the insignificant injuries (and minuscule damage) imposed by the militias show them to be pretty ineffective as well.
The prime minister of Iraq, Mohammad Shia as-Sudani, who got his position with Tehran’s approval, criticized the militias for their attacks on the Americans, pointing out that the US troops are in Iraq at Iraqi invitation and it is his job to protect them.
Some believe Iran has ordered the militias to fire wide in order to avoid killing anyone and provoking the Americans. But few in the Pentagon think that; many of the missiles and drones have come close to killing troops. On October 25, one Iranian-made drone hit the roof of a barracks with dozens of troops inside. But the warhead was defective and did not explode.
Back in Washington, Republicans are trying to make a campaign issue out of Biden’s alleged “weakness” on Iran. (See accompanying article on Page 16.) That does not seem to be taking hold with a public tired of “forever” wars in the Middle East. But even some Democrats are publicly concerned that Biden may hold his fire even if an American is killed. President Donald Trump said he would respond violently if any American were killed by Iranian proxies. Biden has not said that, although many in his administration are understood to believe there should be a major US response if any American is killed.
The last time the United States launched a military action against Iran was 37 years ago on October 19, 1987, when US naval forces destroyed two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf. Operation Nimble Archer was in retaliation for an Iranian attack on the MV Sea Island City, a Kuwaiti-owned tanker that had been reflagged as a US ship. A great many provocations have been launched by Iran since then without much of a US response, which may have given the Islamic Republic a sense of safety.
The US has upgraded its response. In the fourth retaliation after more than 60 militia attacks, the US Air Force had an AC-130 gunship loitering above the Army’s base at Tanf in Syria. It saw a truck with rocket launchers pull up near the base. It waited until the rockets were launched and then unloaded its massive cannons on the truck, leaving the vehicle a burned-out hulk and killing an estimated five militiamen. The loitering gunship shows the US was eager to take on the militias but not necessarily Iran itself.
The Washington Post reported November 19 that Pentagon officials are frustrated. It quoted a “senior defense official” as saying the Pentagon “has provided additional options to the president beyond the actions that have been taken to date.” It gave no hint as to what those options might be.
The Islamic Republic may now be trying a new tack. In late November, one ship was seized in the Red Sea and one in the Indian Ocean was struck by a small drone. The Red Sea ship was owned by a British firm, whose major owner was a wealthy Israeli. The one hit in the Indian Ocean was owned by another British firm, with a major Israeli stockholder. The one seized in the Red Sea was at first believed to have been seized by the Houthis, but now there is some evidence that the helicopter troops who seized the ships came from a Pasdar vessel that stays deployed like an Iranian base off of Yemen. And the drone that struck the other ship is almost uniformly assumed to be Iranian.
The point of these moves is unclear. They do nothing to stop Israel’s thrust into Gaza or to hurt the Israeli state. But they may make some people in the Islamic Republic feel good.
US ships have been stationed in the Red Sea where they have shot down several missiles fired by the Houthis toward Israel.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian commented threateningly on the US carrier in the Indian Ocean. “Our military officials are of the opinion that the deployment of US aircraft carriers near our region, which makes them accessible, is not a strong point for the US. Rather, it makes them more vulnerable to possible strikes.” No one in the US government has even acknowledged that comment. An attack out of the blue on a US aircraft carrier would start a full-scale war, regardless of Biden’s reluctance to see another war.
Earlier, Abdollahian told the UN, “I warn if the genocide in Gaza continues, they [the Americans] will not be spared from this fire.” Many Republicans complained angrily that Biden had allowed Abdollahian to enter the United States. But the Iran Times saw no response to the foreign minister’s threat.
The foreign minister has made numerous other such comments about US missteps leading to a war. They have all been greeted with a collective yawn, even by Republicans who are looking for ways to paint Iran as a threat.
In another provocative act from the Islamic Republic, an Iranian ship pointed a laser at the cockpit of a US Marine helicopter flying nearby over the Persian Gulf. Lasers can blind pilots. No crewman on the chopper was injured, however. The Soviet Union used to aim lasers at US pilots many years ago until an agreement was reached to ban the practice. This is only the second time Iranian forces have aimed a laser at the Americans. The last time was in 2017.
The Islamic Republic, for its part, has been telling the Iranian public there is nothing to worry about from the Americans. As Defense Minister Mohammad-Reza Ashtiani said early in November, no country in the world has the military capability to confront the armed forces of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel is in the process of being destroyed and the Americans are caught in a Zionist web and are just trying to get out of the danger they have gotten themselves into. Ashtiani said the reason no country can endanger Iran is because of its strategic location, which is just giberish.
