This will likely bring joy to narcotics police in Iran, where much of the Afghan crop ends up.
Crop failures are not out of the ordinary in Afghanistan, but what makes this news significant is its potential to cripple the Taliban’s insurgency as the fighting season heats up and the group faces the prospect of funding shortfalls.
The provincial government of Afghanistan’s southern province of Helmand, which accounts for more than half of the country’s production of opium, called the crop failure a “divine decree.”
Afghan officials ascribe the failure to blight, and US commanders expect the Taliban to suffer setbacks as a result.
But the major beneficiary of the drug trade is not the Taliban – it’s the large-scale drug dealers who enjoy the Taliban’s protection. This has led some to question that the low yield is going to have any significant impact on the Taliban’s activities this year.
“The drug traffickers are not on the side of the Taliban; they are in collusion with the Taliban,” said Jean-Luc Lemahieu, the Afghanistan director of the UN Office on Drug and Crime.
Recognizing that the crop is a significant source of revenue for the Taliban, the Afghan government and its international allies have been trying for the past decade to eradicate its cultivation but have failed. Drug cultivation went from a few hundred tons during the Taliban’s last year in power to several thousand tons in 2011.
But now, nature seems to be doing what hundreds of millions of dollars and 10 years of effort failed to achieve. Nine-tenths of the Afghan poppy cultivation occurs in the four provinces of Qandahar, Helmand, Oruzgan and Farah. US military officers in Qandahar and Oruzgan report that yields this year are as low as one-sixth of last year’s, while officers in Helmand report a two-thirds reduction in yields.
It’s a double-edged sword, however, because the crop failure is a catastrophe for the Afghan farmers who rely on the illicit harvest to feed their families. Already, three farmers have committed suicide in Helmand because of the crop failure, according to Afghan officials. The economic deprivation is also likely to lead more Afghans to join the Taliban.
Opium prices are susceptible to market forces, and a shortfall in production due to a crop failure is driving up prices. UN surveys show that a kilogram of dried opium sells at the farm for $300, up from $200 in March.
The soaring price offers farmers the incentive to increase their cultivation next year. The surge in production, coupled with large-scale drug dealers who hoarded last year’s harvest, then will likely drive prices down.
That will have an adverse effect on the farmers again.