March 26, 2021
The Majlis has approved a bill designed to boost the birth rate in support of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi’s goal to raise the population of Iran to 150 million.
The bill doesn’t set any numerical goals, however, and gives no hint how it is to be judged successful or not, suggesting it is intended more as an ideological declaration than a pragmatic measure.
It states only that it desires to “increase the population.” Part of that is done by prohibiting any actions that would inhibit child-bearing, something that was done a decade ago when Khamenehi halted the government’s family planning programs and started encouraging large families.
The bill contains 74 provisions encouraging more children and punishing those who do not wish to participate.
One article bans the free distribution of contraceptives. Another outlaws sterilization. And another bars health workers from encouraging pregnant women from taking tests to see if their fetuses have abnormalities.
Article 59 declares that abortion is a national security crime, meaning those who obtain abortions would be subject to major criminal punishments.
The law requires the Ministries of Science, of Health and of Sports to devote 5 percent of their research budgets each year to studies of childbearing and population growth.
The law also guarantees promotions to state employees who have large families.
Another provision offers a loan of 1.5 million rials ($6,000) on the birth of a third child.
Census data from the Statistical Center of Iran in 2020 indicates that fewer than 28 percent of the country’s households in 2020 had four or more members, adults and children.
This is not the first time incentive packages for childbearing have been offered in Iran. Ten years ago, President Mahmud Ahmadi-nejad offered for the birth of each new child a figure worth about $1,000 at the time. The “reward” was offered to all families, not just those welcoming a third child, and did not need to be repaid, like the new program just enacted.
But Ahmadi-nejad’s reward scheme did not have any discernable impact, so there is little likelihood the new loan scheme will reverse the decline in the population growth rate.
Many analysts in Iran argue that the falling birthrate is the natural consequence of far deeper economic, social, political and even environmental problems that cannot be resolved with actions like the new legislation.