The Justice Department finally took it seriously because of two developments.
First, accused plotter Manssor Arbabsiar, viewed as a bumbling nobody, was able to produce $100,000 as a down payment for the murder plot—and that money came from a bank account that the FBI had previously identified as a Qods Force account and was already monitoring. That told the FBI that Arbabsiar was actually in contact with Iran’s Qods Force and not just playing around on its own—although it didn’t prove the payment was made for a murder.
Second, after Arbabsiar was arrested, the FBI had him make two telephone calls to the Qods Force officer Arbabsiar claimed was his contact and the man from whom he got directions. Talking in code language over the phone, that Qods Force officer told Arbabsiar it was important to speedily carry out the planned assassination of the Saudi ambassador in Washington, thus clearly linking the Qods Force to murder.
The phone calls and the payment from the Qods Force account convinced the FBI that Arbabsiar was not some confused man acting out a spy fantasy but actually was under the aegis of the Qods Force, which is the overseas arm of the Pasdaran.
Those two factual developments, however, didn’t answer the howls of disbelief from many.
The most common complaint was that the plot outline didn’t make sense and didn’t fit the way the Islamic Republic had operated in the past.
Critics said the plot was amateurish, using a businessman with a record of repeated failures and a reputation for bumbling as the key figure.
Analysts said the Qods Force was a very professional organization and wouldn’t be so foolish as to pursue such an inane plot.
Still others ask why Iran would want to carry out a murder from which it would gain next-to-nothing but could stand to lose much if it ever were exposed.
The criticisms bore much merit.
The modus operandi was strange. So far as is known, Iran never before tried to work with drug gangs. Traditionally, Iran has hired Lebanese Shias through Hezbollah to carry out many of its plots around the world. That is very well known. It is so well known that if any Lebanese Shia is caught in a crime, it is immediately assumed he was put up to it by Iran.
In fact, the Islamic Republic has now resorted to using Iranians in some cases instead of Lebanese Shias. In the weird bomb plot in Thailand that was exposed last February, the Thai police have named only Iranian nationals. Indians say it was an Iranian who planted the magnetic bomb on an Israeli car in New Delhi last year.
In the United States, it would be logical for Iran to look for someone not so easily traceable back to Iran to carry out its plans. In that sense, the approach to a Mexican drug cartel makes sense.