The IMF projections showed Iran with the third worst economy this year among the 22 countries of the Middle East and North Africa region. The only countries shown with less growth were Sudan and Yemen, both of which are projected to have declining economies in recession this year. The IMF made no projections for Syria this year.
It should be emphasized that these are only projections coming less than one month into the Persian year. The numbers may be revised. Last year, the IMF published estimates for Iran’s growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for the just concluded year ranging from zero to 3 percent.
In Friday’s statistical tables, it put Iran’s growth last year at an anemic 2.0 percent. That ranked Iran 14th of 22 countries in the region. Lower growth rates were shown for Bahrain, Egypt and Lebanon. And negative growth was shown for Sudan, Yemen, Tunisia and especially Libya, which was recorded as having a 61 percent decline in GDP.
But, except for Lebanon, all those countries ranking below Iran last year were suffering from severe political upheavals and street disorders, if not outright civil war.
The IMF put Iran’s inflation rate last year at 21.3 percent, the highest of all the countries in the region. It forecast inflation this year marginally higher at 21.8 percent. It projected that Sudan would have slightly higher inflation of 23.2 percent this year and be the sole country in the region with more inflation than Iran.
Here are the IMF’s figures on Iran’s GDP growth for the opening years of the 21st century. The last column shows Iran’s rank among the 22 countries of the Middle East and North Africa region. Because no figures for Syria are included in 2011, 2012 and 2013, there are only 21 countries ranked in those years.
2000-06 6.0% 7th
2007 6.4% 11th
2008 0.6% 22nd
2009 3.9% 10th
2010 5.9% 5th
2011 2.0% 14th
2012 0.4% 19th
2013 1.3% 20th
These figures are for the Persian year beginning in the Gregorian year shown.
Overall the statistics show a dismal performance under President Ahmadi-nejad, who took office halfway through 2005. The IMF rankings do not support regime claims to have the most dynamic economy in the region.
What’s more, Iran is not only being outshone by fellow oil exporters, it is even being beaten now by oil importers. The Middle East and North Africa region is comprised half of oil exporters and half of oil importers. For 2012 and 2013, the IMF is reporting that every single oil importing country in the region will enjoy greater economic growth than Iran.
The IMF said the greatest danger that the regional oil importers face comes from the threat of higher oil prices, something the Islamic Republic is striving for.
The IMF said Iran’s high rate of inflation was “temporary,” due to the elimination of subsidies. Still, it forecast that in 2013, Iran’s inflation rate would remain the second highest in the region at 18.2 percent.
