February 2, 2024
The promised new and improved relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran don’t seem very new or very improved.
In the latest incident in bilateral relations, Tehran on January 3 canceled its announced plans to resume hajj flights to Saudi Arabia on that day after an eight-year hiatus. Iran Air said it had to cancel all flights because Saudi Arabia had not given Iran landing rights in Saudi Arabia.
China brokered the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia last March and pundits said that was key to a dramatic change in Iran-Saudi relations and to China’s role in the Middle East. They said this showed that China was willing and able to play a bigger role in the region, displacing Washington to some degree.
But since the Hamas invasion of Israel October 7, China has simply disappeared from the Middle East and has played absolutely no role in the most important developments in the region in decades.
As for Iran-Saudi relations, the resumption of diplomatic ties as a result of Chinese involvement seems to be little more than a formality. Embassies have re-opened, but relations remain sour.
A key change discussed with the resumption of diplomatic relations was to be Saudi investment in Iran, which would have had the effect of skewering US sanctions on Iran. But there has been no investment yet.
Bloomberg News reported November 29 that the Saudis had approached Iran on multiple occasions with an offer of investment if the Islamic Republic restrained its proxies—Yemen’s Houthis, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and assorted Iraqi militias—from widening the Hamas-Israel conflict.
The Islamic Republic has not restrained its proxies and Saudi Arabia has not so far agreed to any investment in Iran.
With the cancelation of the Iran Air hajj flights to Saudi Arabia, it is difficult to find any gain from the resumption of diplomatic relations. The two countries are once again talking to one another. But the talks have not produced any results after almost a year.
