October 14, 2022
The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad to day controls about 60 percent as much territory as a decade ago and its population has been halved but it has gone from 15 percent Alawite and Shiite to 40 percent, a huge demographic shift.
According to the newspaper Israel Hayom, the Israeli military has identified that demographic shift as a significant threat to Israel. The concern is that, as the distress of Syrian civilians increases, Iran and Hezbollah will exploit the situation to recruit Shiite youth, like they did in Lebanon.
President Assad has control over more than 60 percent of the territory he controlled prior to 2011, a huge recovery. Control over the rest of Syria is divided between Turkey, the Kurds (with support from the US), and the rebels, who still retain a hold on a major part of Idlib province. The unofficial lines have largely stabilized in the past year and there is little fighting now.
Apart from the territorial changes, the war also caused demographic shifts as many people have fled their former homes. The big change is the flight of Sunnis from the areas controlled by Assad.
In 2011, Syria was home to 21.3 million residents – 59 percent Sunni, 11 percent Alawites (a minority somewhat like Shiites), and only 4 percent Shiites. However, the territory currently under Assad’s control is home to only 10 million people, with Shiites making up 10 percent of the population and Alawites 30 percent. In other words, the Alawite/Shiite minorities accounted for some 15 percent of the Syrian population a decade ago, but now account for some 40 percent of the population in areas under Assad’s control. President Assad is an Alawite.
Many of the Shiites in Syria live in the southern part of the country – the Syrian Golan Heights on the border with Israel. The villages of Qarfa and Sayyidah Zaynab are homes to large Shiite communities with thousands of residents. Nine other villages in the area are home to smaller Shiite enclaves. On the whole, the Shiite population there is increasing, a fact that has not gone unnoticed inside Israel.
Meanwhile, as the war appears to be nearing its end, civilian distress is growing. Young people are leaving Syria, and poverty is rife.
Israel Hayom said, “Past experience has taught us that terrorist instigators are able to take advantage of civilian distress through charity organizations that provide food and fuel, thus winning the people’s hearts. This is how Hezbollah operated in Lebanon and what Hamas does in the Gaza Strip.
“Unsurprisingly, Iran is trying to use the situation in Syria to its own advantage, not necessarily with the assent of Assad, who opted for Russia as his main ally in the war rather than Iran.
“Iran’s terrorist operations have a fertile recruiting ground in the Syrian Shiite population, and according to Israeli estimates, a few hundred individuals have already been recruited by Hezbollah or Iran and its satellites.”
But most outside observers agree that Iran is having difficulty gaining a military foothold in Syria, and terrorist activity is being thwarted from the air by Israeli attacks.
Israel also attacks on the ground, though that initiative does not get as much publicity. Israel’s 210th Bashan Division wages cross-border raids and firing at terrorist infrastructure and Syrian Army posts.
According to Israel Hayom, during the past year, a number of raids and several dozen ambushes were conducted, which led to the arrests of some 15 Syrians who infiltrated the border, some for hostile purposes.
