August 06, 2021
In the Russian and Iranian expert communities, there is widespread optimism that Raisi’s victory will strengthen Russia-Iran relations. Boris Dolgov, an expert at Moscow’s Institute of Oriental Studies, predicted that Raisi will expand economic and political cooperation with Russia. Vladimir Sazhin, a senior fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies, noted that “Russia will undoubtedly be included in the list of Iran’s priority partners,” but acknowledged that Russia and Iran will maintain a situational partnership. Seyyed Mohammad Marandi, a professor at the University of Tehran, predicted that Raisi’s foreign policy will “tilt eastward and to the Global South,” and this orientation will strengthen Iran’s partnerships with Russia and China. Although Raisi supports the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), his categorical refusal to meet President Joe Biden suggests that a JCPOA revival will not improve U.S.-Iran relations or affect Tehran’s eastward-oriented foreign policy.
Raisi’s conciliatory attitude toward Russia will complement the systemic drivers of Moscow-Tehran cooperation. In April 2017, Raisi held a much-publicized meeting with Tatarstan’s President Rustam Minnikhanov, who is a key surrogate for Putin’s foreign policy in the Islamic world, and praised Iran’s commitment to strengthening its relationships with Russia and Tatarstan. As this meeting occurred less than a month before the May 2017 presidential elections, in which Raisi was a candidate, it fuelled speculation that Russia was interfering in the Iranian elections to bolster his standing. As Russian officials have cordial relations with Iranian conservatives, such as former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and former Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Akbar Velayati, this goodwill will likely extend to Raisi as well.
Despite these positive factors, the potential deterioration of Iran’s relationships with Saudi Arabia and Israel jeopardizes Russia’s regional balancing strategy. If Raisi doubles down on Ayatollah Khamenei’s foreign policy views, instead of trying to moderate them, Iran’s backchannel dialogue with Saudi Arabia could collapse and the Iran-Israel proxy war in Syria and Iraq could intensify. If this scenario occurs, Iran could request sophisticated Russian military technology, such as the S-400 missile defence system. Although Russian officials, such as Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov and Russian Ambassador to Iran Levan Dzhagaryan, have left the door open to S-400 sales to Iran, Russia has previously declined to sell the anti-aircraft system to Iran. If this scenario repeats itself, Iran’s historical perceptions of Russia as an unreliable partner could resurface. To minimize disruption to its regional strategy, Russia supports the immediate restoration of the JCPOA. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova’s recent claims that the Iran nuclear deal will be revived prior to July 14 the sixth anniversary of its signing should be viewed in this context.