August 06, 2021
Due to Ayatollah Khamenei’s advanced age, the appointment of a new supreme leader is expected to occur during Raisi’s presidency. Russian experts have expressed mixed opinions on what Iran’s political system might look like after Khamenei. In a 2017 Valdai Discussion Club commentary, Russian experts saw the potential for significant political change after Khamenei’s death. Sazhin contended that there are three options for Iran’s future. The first is a transition to collective leadership, under which a handful of clerics would replace the supreme leader; the second is the reduction of the supreme leader’s power to that of a constitutional monarch; and the third is no change to Iran’s theocratic system. Alexander Maryasov, Russia’s ambassador to Iran from 2001-05, believed that a large number of external threats will perpetuate the current system in Iran, while the mitigation of Iran’s security threats could facilitate democratization.
Since Raisi’s largely uncontested election victory, Russian experts are united in their belief in the perpetuation of the status quo in the post-Khamenei era. Sazhin recently predicted that the next supreme leader will be “someone who will follow the principles of the Islamic revolution and the precepts of Imam Khomeini,” but noted Khamenei’s selection in 1989 was proof of the Iranian system’s unpredictability. Elena Dunaeva, an expert at the Institute of Oriental Studies, quipped that everything can change in Iran within 24 hours, but predicted that Raisi would likely replace Khamenei as supreme leader. Dunaeva believes that outgoing President Hassan Rouhani would be marginalized from politics in a post-Khamenei Iran but predicted that he could be an “Islamic sheikh” who plays an active role in the Iranian clerical community.
Khamenei’s appointment as supreme leader in 1989 following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini resulted in an immediate improvement in Moscow-Tehran relations, as Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s historic meeting with Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, then speaker of the Iranian parliament, occurred less than three weeks after he took power. Khamenei’s close personal relationship with Putin is well-documented, as he described the Russian president in 2015 as an “outstanding figure in today’s world.” The Iranian foreign policy community’s consensus around Russia’s importance as a partner in a multipolar world order and support for Iran’s integration into Eurasian multilateral institutions, such as the Eurasian Economic Union and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, suggest that Khamenei’s contributions to the Russia-Iran partnership will endure in every plausible succession scenario.
While the JCPOA’s future hangs in the balance, Raisi’s presidency will likely see the strengthening of Russia-Iran relations. As Russia and Iran compete for influence in Syria’s post-conflict reconstruction, Eurasian integration and normative bonding will likely play an increasingly important role in driving bilateral cooperation in the post-Khamenei era.
Samuel Ramani completed his doctorate at the University of Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations in March 2021. He is currently writing a book on Russia’s foreign and security policy toward Africa.