June 25, 2021
The inflation rate dropped last month only the second decline in the past 12 months as the Islamic Republic appears to have avoided crossing the politically embarrassing mark of 50 percent.
The Statistical Center of Iran said the annual inflation rate for the Persian month ending May 21 was 46.9 percent compared with the same month in the previous year. That was down a substantial 2.6 percentage points from the rate the previous month of 49.5 percent.
By the other statistical measure used by Iran the average rate of the previous 12 months inflation continued to rise. As of May 21, it was 41.0 percent compared to 38.9 percent as of the previous month.
That difference is normal. The first measure comparing the rate to the month 12 months previous tends to rise or fall first; it is a leading measure. This can be seen in the accompanying chart. Assuming the first measure continues to fall, it will be a few months before the second measure catches up and falls.
The year-on-year inflation rate has been climbing for a full year (with the exception of one month) since bottoming out at 21.0 percent in the month equivalent to May 2020. It has not been below 20 percent since July 2018 almost three years ago.
This an almost unprecedented run of very high inflation.
Globally, the World Bank shows only 19 countries, out of more than 200, with inflation rates at 10 percent or more, putting Iran in a unpleasant place.
