December 25 2020
The Majlis has approved a law requiring the government to violate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in more ways, which could drive Europe to formally resume sanctions against Iran.
The proponents of the new law said it would have the effect of tightening the noose around the EU and forcing it to come back into compliance with JCPOA. But few in Europe seemed to believe that—in fact, most treated it as ridiculous.
A key part of the law said the EU would have just two months from December 12 to resume buying Iranian crude at the same level as previously and to eliminate all banking restrictions so that normal trade could return—a move that would threaten US sanctions on any European firm that did business with Iran. If the EU doesn’t comply by February 12, Iran must kick all UN inspectors out of Iran.
The Rohani Administration not only opposed the terms of the bill, but also said the bill was unconstitutional. The Guardians Council did not agree. It found one minor problem with the bill and sent it back to the Majlis, which made the minor change within hours, sending it back to the Council of Guardians, which immediately approved it.
The Rohani Administration has now said it will abide by the new law.
For some reason the Majlis has not published the number of nay votes and abstentions, but the Iran Daily said 251 deputies voted for it. That is an astounding 90 percent of the membership, an almost unheard of majority, which means even many Reformists felt a need to vote for it in the wake of the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh just five days before the vote.
The Rohani Administration argued that the bill was unconstitutional because the Constitution requires that nuclear policy lay in the hands of the Supreme National Security Council, which is chaired by the president.
The new law has nine articles of policies that the legislators have now imposed on the government, though, as usual, some of the articles are merely subsets of other articles to make the bill look more comprehensive.
There are really five policy directives.
PRESSURE ON EU: The most important provision would effectively order the president to kick the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors out of Iran two months after the bill becomes law if Europe has not restored “normal” banking relations with Iran and resumed the “normal” level of crude oil purchases from Iran. The EU bought about 450,000 barrels of crude per day before President Trump resumed US sanctions. Daily sales then were reduced to zero and remain there.
ADDITIONAL PROTOCOL: The bill also directs the government to halt all IAEA activities that go beyond the Additional Protocol two months after passage of the law. The Rohani Administration has long said the IAEA is given no rights beyond the Additional Protocol and IAEA officials have complained that the Islamic Republic doesn’t even abide by all the provisions of the Additional Protocol, so this provision may be meaningless.
ENRICHMENT: The bill requires the government to start enriching uranium to 20 percent two months after the law takes effect. The JCPOA sets the limit at 3.67 percent and Iran began enriching up to 4.75 percent more than a year ago. The 4.75 percent figure is the level needed to fuel Iran’s Russian-built nuclear power plant, although Russia’s supplies all the fuel. The 20 percent figure is the level required to operate the US-built Tehran Research Reactor. The bill requires Iran to produce 120 kilos of 20 percent enriched uranium a year at the start and increase that over an unstated time period to 500 kilos per month. For weapons purposes, Iran would need uranium enriched to about 90 percent. When enriching to weapons level, about 80 percent of the effort and time is required to get raw uranium to 3.75 percent and another 17 percent to get it to 20 percent, leaving just 3 percent of total effort to get it to 90 percent. Thus, enriching to 20 percent would bring Iran to the threshold of weapons-grade uranium and is a very concerning change for Europe.
CENTRIFUGES: The bill also requires that the regime use more centrifuges and of a more advanced design. The Atomic Energy Organization already started doing this some weeks ago. But the bill says rather precisely that it must put “at least” 1,000 IR-2 centrifuges in the enrichment hall at Natanz within three months and install IR-6 centrifuges at Fordo numbering 164 within three months and 1,000 by Now Ruz 2022.
ARAK REACTOR: The bill requires the government to resume work on the 40-megawatt heavy water reactor at Arak under the pre-JCPOA design. The JCPOA required Iran to destroy the heart of the reactor—which has been done—and then to rebuild it under a Chinese design that would remove the characteristics that allow it to be used for weapons’ purposes.
Majlis Speaker Moham-mad-Baqer Qalibaf said the goal of the new legislation was simple. “We hope that we can remove sanctions with this decisive position,” he said, without explaining how those provisions were supposed to achieve that goal.
Government spokesman Ali Rabii said the legislation would have the opposite effect. Enriching uranium to 20 percent and abandoning the Additional Protocol would make sanctions “permanent,” he said.
Qalibaf emphasized that the bill allows for negotiations to revive the original JCPOA restrictions, if that is what the world wants.
The Rohani Administration has already breached several parts of the JCPOA as a response to President Trump re-imposing US sanctions two years ago. The Rohani Administration and the Majlis both say they are quite willing to return to the original text of the JCPOA if the Americans do so, too. However, one provision the Rohani Administration broke contained limits on research and development work. Knowledge gained by R&D cannot be put back into the bottle, so the conditions at the January 2016 start of the JCPOA cannot be restored.
The bill was introduced last August under a single urgency priority. But two days after the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Majlis voted to give the bill “double urgency” priority—and then ploughed away at top speed to pass it.