January 10, 2020
Dies in flames with 4 other Pasdar generals
President Trump has set the entire world on edge by ordering the US military to assassinate Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleymani, for decades the chief of the Qods Force, the branch of the Pasdaran that conducts operations outside Iran.
The killing eliminated Soleymani plus the head of Kata’eb Hezbollah, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, one of the Iraqi militias organized by Soleymani and the one that has been attacking Americans in Iraq the last two months. In addition, it was later announced that four Pasdar generals traveling with Soleymani and six Iraqi militia officers also died in the two flaming vehicles as they were leaving Baghdad Airport after Soleymani flew there from Syria at 1 a.m. January 3.
They were killed by multiple missiles fired from a US military MQ-9 Reaper drone.
Soleymani, 62, had been tracked by the US military for 15 years, ever since he started sending Iraqi militia bands to kill American troops in Iraq. The Pentagon attributes the deaths of 603 US troops to Soleymani for supplying a special kind of weapon that was used to kill those Americans. But neither George W. Bush nor Barack Obama ever agreed to authorize an assassination attempt. Trump did not authorize one either in his first three years in the White House.
The world was uniformly stunned, especially since Trump had proven reluctant to authorize military operations in the Middle East—most notably refusing to retaliate for the shootdown of an unmanned US drone or the massed missile and drone attack on Saudi oil installations. The shift in the space of weeks from no action to outright murder showed how unpredictable Trump is.
The global reaction was strong condemnation of Trump. However, there was little defense of Soleymani. The criticism was that Trump had destabilized the Middle East through his stunning initiative and might cause an outbreak of war because the Islamic Republic would feel humiliated and would thus react violently and bloodily.
But there was little sympathy for Soleymani among foreign policy specialists who almost uniformly saw him as highly skilled militarily, but also a dangerous actor who was successfully building Iranian imperial power over Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
Democrats largely condemned Trump for the assassination, but made sure they also condemned Soleymani. Perhaps the most typical reaction was the one given by Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts: “Soleymani was a murderer, responsible for the deaths of thousands, including hundreds of Americans. But this reckless move [the assassination] escalates the situation with Iran and increases the likelihood of more deaths and new Middle East conflict.” The focus was on the fear of a full-scale war, not on the right or wrong of killing Soleymani.
The events that led directly to Soleymani’s death began only in October. Soleymani had killed many American troops in Iraq from 2004 until their withdrawal in 2011. When the Americans returned to Iraq to fight the Islamic State in 2014, the US was fighting the same enemy as Iran and Soleymani sent out word to avoid conflict with the Americans.
That changed October 28 when Iraqi militiamen under Soleymani’s orders fired shells into an Iraqi base in western Iraq where US troops were stationed with Iraqi troops. Every few days more shells were fired into other such Iraqi bases. The United States issued a public warning that it would not tolerate any American being killed.
On December 27, the militiamen fired for the 11th time and killed an American contractor while wounding several Americans as well as Iraqi troops on an Iraqi base near Kirkuk. A total of 31 rockets were fired into the base.
According to The New York Times, the Pentagon then presented Trump with a list of options. As is typical with such lists, there were extreme options not to be taken seriously with the real options in between. The extreme options in this case were to do nothing on one hand or to kill Soleymani on the other extreme. Trump picked one of the middle options and the US military responded by heavily bombing five Kata’eb Hezbollah bases in Syria and western Iraq December 29, killing about two dozen militiamen, blowing up ammunition dumps and leveling some buildings. It was not a minor retaliation.
The Iraqi militias responded by gathering outside the US embassy in Baghdad on New Year’s Eve. The Iraqi Army, which is supposed to control the area, did nothing to stop the march on the US embassy compound. Militiamen crashed through one gate and entered the building that serves as the hall where visitors are checked before they are allowed to go to the embassy building itself. The militiamen trashed that hall and set it afire, but did not go any further into the compound.
More than 300 State Department staffers are assigned to the embassy. They were gathered in a specially built “safe room” that is supposed to protect them from fire and gunshots. US troops were on the roofs of buildings in the huge compound and fired tear gas to try to drive the militiamen away. They did not fire live ammunition. But the Iranian media told the Iranian public the US troops not only fired live ammunition but actually killed some of the demonstrators.
Many protesters stayed in front of the compound overnight, but all withdrew by the afternoon of New Year’s Day.
The New York Times said Trump got furious watching video of the attack, which seemed to remind him of the attack on the US embassy in Libya in which the US ambassador was killed. Republicans assailed then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, saying she was to blame for not providing enough protection for the embassy. An angry Trump then went back to the option list from the Pentagon and gave the order to kill Soleymani.
The New York Times said senior military officials were “flabbergasted” and “alarmed” by the decision, but carried out their orders.
The very next morning, January 3, Soleymani flew into Baghdad on his plane. Within minutes of disembarking, he was dead. Militiamen said his body was so badly burned it could only be identified by his ring.
The Pentagon said Soley-mani was targeted because he had come to Baghdad to plot another attack designed to kill American troops and diplomats in Iraq. The US gave no further details, so it was unknown how solid the evidence was of a plot to kill Americans. And in subsequent days, many questions have been raised about this explanation.
The reaction in official Iran to the killing was a loud and persistent threat of vengeance. However, officials stuck to their usual rhetoric when they are challenged and uncertain how to react. They pledged to respond forcefully, but repeated that they would choose the time and nature of the response and would not be forced into a hasty reaction. This often presages no response other than rhetoric.
For example, Brig. Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi of the Pasdaran said, “We will set up a plan—patiently—to respond to this terrorist act in a crushing and powerful manner. But we will chose the time and place of the response.”
Many if not most analysts thought the Islamic Republic had been so humiliated by the assassination that it would have to respond. Many analysts cautioned, however, that the primary goal of the regime is to preserve the regime and that it often withdraws like a tortoise if it fears that a forceful reaction might mean its demise.
Since no one expected the Soleymani assassination, it is unlikely that Iran had any plan for a response. For such a major decision, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenehi will consult widely and is likely to take his time making a decision and being certain that he has most of the regime establishment lined up in support. Another reason for taking his time is that many are so angry that they may now be recommending an especially bloody response, while greater reflection over the next few weeks may prompt more caution.
In a statement, Khamenehi pledged “harsh revenge.” He also said, “If the Islamic Republic makes a decision to confront any country, it will do it directly.” But that is not true. Iran has always preferred covert operations that allowed it to deny involvement.
Foreign Minister Moham-mad-Javad Zarif appeared already to be urging caution. In his initial reaction, he even argued that the Americans didn’t carry out the killing on their own initiative. “We need to see how the Americans were tricked into carrying out this dangerous operation. We feel they made a blunder and were given unwise advice by the leaders of certain regional countries and the Zionist regime.” That was an amusing reaction that set the stage for disengaging from the United States.
But Zarif soon contradicted himself, saying, “This move by Trump was in service of his election campaign and an attempt to escape from impeachment.” But Trump’s base—which is all he cares about—is neo-isolationist and supports him in part because he promised in his 2016 campaign to withdraw from the Middle East and keep the United States out of wars there. As for impeachment, he has already been impeached and is awaiting an unscheduled trial in the Senate, so the assassination does nothing for him there.
Iran was also taken aback by the German reaction. Germany has often been viewed as Iran’s main friend in Europe. But German Foreign Ministry spokesman Ulrike Demmer said, “The American action was a reaction to a series of military provocations for which Iran is responsible.” That signaled that Iran is likely to be condemned in Europe if it launches a bloody retaliation for the assassination. While Britain, France, Canada and others were not so dramatic in their reactions, the general theme was to say Iran must not respond violently rather than to condemn the United States.
The Miami Herald, located in Florida where the Central Command is headquartered, said three sources told it that the option of killing Soleymani began to be discussed last summer after a half dozen tankers were attacked around the Strait of Hormuz.
Adm. William Fallon, who commanded the Central Command from 2007 to 2008, said he wanted to kill Soleymani long ago. “He was Number One on my list 12 years ago,” he told McClatchy News after Soley-mani’s assassination. But President Bush refused to approve any action against Soleymani.
Most of the public discussion around the world centered on the chances that the killing would result in a general war. Most specialists, however, discounted that. Observers of Trump say he is scared that if he enters yet another war in the Middle East, his isolationist supporters will abandon him and he will have no chance of re-election 10 months from now.
Iran analysts generally believe the Islamic Republic is so wedded to the primary goal of maintaining its existence that it will do its utmost to avoid further provoking the Americans into a general war. There are, however, many in the Iranian establishment who believe that a military dustup that falls short of an American invasion would be good for the regime because it would force Iranian nationalists to “rally round the flag.”
The fear of war among many Americans was palpable. The website of the Selective Service System crashed January 3 because so many young Americans were checking the site to see if they would be drafted. All American males turning 18 must register with the Selective Service System, the agency that would run a draft. However. Selective Service has no authority to draft and will have no such authority unless both chambers of Congress vote to give it that authority.
The fear was further fed by rap star Cardi B who said she was scared to live in the United States with Iran possibly attacking and was planning to move to Africa.
Trump appeared galvanized by the public fear of war, a reaction he seems not to have anticipated. He proclaimed that the assassination was ordered to stop a war, not to start one.
He then reverted to violent threats, tweeting that if Iran attacked, he would retaliate against 52 sites in Iran, one for each of the 52 hostages held in 1979-81. He tweeted that some of those targets were “at a very high level & important to Iran and the Iranian culture.” The threat against cultural sites drew the most attention since a convention decrees that attacks against cultural sites or places of worship are war crimes. Asked about that, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo clearly but politely contradicted his boss, saying the US would only strike “lawful targets.”
But Trump didn’t back off, even after it was explained to him that the United States is a party to the 1954 Hague Convention that bars “direct hostilities against cultural property.” Trump instead doubled down: “They’re allowed to kill our people. They’re allowed to torture and maim our people. They’re allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And we’re not allowed to touch their cultural sites? It doesn’t work that way,” Trump told reporters.
The threat to cultural sites resonated very strongly with Iranians of all political stripes, apparently including many of those who were not saddened by the assassination of Soleymani. Social media were filled with anger at Trump for those threats.
In one of his many tweets, President Trump also asserted that Soleymani was “hated” inside Iran. However, numerous polls have shown that he was by far the most respected major figure in the regime. Trump also asserted that Soleymani was responsible for the deaths of Iranian protesters in November. But Soleymani’s Qods Force only operates outside Iran and had nothing to do with the suppression of the November protests.
The Iraqi parliament responded to the assassination by passing legislation saying the United States should pull all its troops out of Iraq. But the language was non-binding. It also did not contain any deadline. And the Constitution does not give the parliament the authority to take such action on its own. The US said it would keep its 5,200 troops in Iraq
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said it had summoned the Swiss ambassador, who handles US relations with Iran, to the Foreign Ministry to hear an Iranian protest. However, the Swiss Foreign Ministry said its ambassador went to the Iranian Foreign Ministry on his own initiative to deliver a message from Washington about the assassination. The Islamic Republic likes to pretend it is being tough by constantly announcing it is summoning foreign ambassadors for a dressing down.
Immediately after the assassination, Khamenehi appointed Brig. Gen. Esmail Qa’ani, 62, as the new commander of the Qods Force. Qa’ani had been deputy commander since 1998, when he was named to that post at the same time Soleymani was named to head the Qods Force. Qa’ani and Soleymani are said to have split the world, with Soleymani dealing with the Arab states while Qa’ani oversaw operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
The US media gave a great deal of attention to the dispatch of 3,500 combat troops to the Middle East. But that is a very small addition to the approximately 65,000 American forces currently in the region and not enough to carry out an invasion.
While angry rhetoric from all the world was being avidly reported, only a few noticed that officials in the Arab world outside Iraq almost uniformly maintained a stoic silence about what had happened on their doorstep. They appeared not to want to get involved. As one wag said, “They are clearly willing to fight Iran to the last American.”
One open question is what impact the assassination will have on the Majlis elections that are less than two months away on February 21. Many speculate that the killing will likely boost hardliner candidates.
Assassinations are a fraught topic. After it was exposed that the CIA had been trying to assassinate Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, President Gerald R. Ford issued an order barring any plans to kill foreign chiefs of state (but not lesser officials). The US has historically opposed assassination. President Franklin Roosevelt forbade the US military from targeting the Tokyo palace of the Japanese emperor. World War II did, however, see the one planned US assassination when the US Navy in 1943 shot down the plane carrying Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto, the man who laid out the plans for the attack on Pearl Harbor—while simultaneously arguing that such an attack would only arouse the American people to a fury and be a deadly blow to Japan.
In the Civil War, actor John Wilkes Booth proposed to the Confederate government that he assassinate US President Abraham Lincoln. Confederate President Jefferson Davis denounced that idea. Booth acted days after the Confederate government collapsed.
