March 16, 2018
by Warren L. Nelson
The firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and his replacement by Mike Pompeo has led to almost uniform commentary in the media that the nuclear agreement with Iran is now much more likely to be killed by the Trump Administration.
Commentators have been pointing to the many highly critical comments Pompeo made in 2015 and 2016 when he was a Republican congressman from Kansas and a vocal opponent of everything President Obama did. There is no shortage of remarks from Pompeo condemning the nuclear deal.
But whether that means he will work in his new job at the State Department to kill the deal remains to be seen.
For the past 14 months, Pompeo has been the director of the CIA. In that post, he has been very critical of the Islamic Republic and its policies. But he has said little about the nuclear agreement, telegraphing to some that he may not really want to torpedo the deal.
On Sunday, just after President Trump named him as his choice for secretary of state, Pompeo was asked about the nuclear deal on “Face the Nation.” He responded, “My critique of the Obama Administration’s JCPOA commitment was that they left the Iranians with a breakout capability. They had a short time frame that these restrictions would remain in place.”
That was considerably less than a stirring call for the deal to be scrapped.
Pompeo was correct that Iran could resume more nuclear work under the JCPOA. The first of the restrictions—on the number of centrifuges it can operate—comes off in January 2026. But Pompeo surely knows that if the agreement is dumped now, Iran can begin spinning more centrifuges right away.
It appears that Pompeo wants to ratchet up pressure on the Islamic Republic—but probably by using policies other than the nuclear program as the justification.
For example, last September, in an interview with Bloomberg News, the CIA director said, “Iran has always made a devil’s bargain with Al-Qaeda to protect them in many ways. And that protection was often contingent on a deal which said if we protect you, you won’t attack us here in Tehran.”
That has been part of his general practice since becoming CIA director of critiquing the Islamic Republic on many fronts, while largely ignoring the nuclear deal.
As secretary of state, of course, he will not be able to sidestep the nuclear agreement.
Tehran was clearly startled by the sudden firing of Tillerson and the elevation of Pompeo.
Asked how the change would impact the Islamic Republic, Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi ducked the question, saying it wasn’t the personnel holding office that mattered but the policies they advocated.
Tillerson was always a voice for moderation on Iran within the Trump Administration. But so are Defense Secretary James Mattis and National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster, who both remain—at least until the next round of Trump firings.