Iranian families will eventually double to $160 per person.
In a speech during his latest provincial visit to Mazandaran last Tuesday, the president gave no hint when the first welfare payments would be released to the public or when the prices of subsidized goods would begin to rise.
State television reported last month that almost $15 billion had been deposited into the bank accounts of 20 million Iranian families. It said the welfare deposits were all completed as of November 11. But a month later, the public has not been authorized to tap into those funds and Ahmadi-nejad did not give a hint when they would be allowed to do so. Nor did he indicate what is causing the holdup.
Officials have said the deposits cover the first two months of the program at the rate of 410,000 rials (about $40) per person per month. Ahmadi-nejad last week said, “When the plan is fully implemented, the amount of money to be paid to people will double.” His audience in Mazandaran cheered that news.
The phase-out of subsidies and the phase-in of cash welfare is to be stretched over five years. Many observers were surprised that half the cash welfare amount was being paid at the very start of the program. That would suggest that half the subsidies will be phased out when the program begins, which would mean huge price hikes for the public.
But most politicians want to phase the subsidies out slowly so shoppers will not be shocked by the shift.
The report on state television that $15 billion had been paid into the accounts of 20 million families, would equal monthly payments of $375 per family, which, at $40 per head, would mean the average Iranian family contains 9.3 people, which is far from reality. Like almost everything else about the program, that discrepancy has not been explained.
The welfare plan is supposed to make larger payments to the poorest part of the population and lesser payments to better off segments. But government officials have spoken only of deposits of 410,000 rials per person per month; no one has said that is an average number and no one has even hinted that payments will vary according to the degree of poverty—although that is what the Majlis legislation calls for.
Despite months of focus on the subsidies-to-welfare shift, few in Iran know what is happening or how the program will work.
In his speech in Mazan-daran, Ahmadi-nejad gave only the one factual tidbit about the program—that payments would eventually double. He revealed nothing else. He spoke at length about the planned shift to cash welfare, but he concentrated on political rhetoric, charging that the criticism of the shift comes from Iran’s Western enemies.
“You see that the sworn enemies of Iran and all the hegemonic media are constantly pushing rumors and psychological warfare; they are creating a hostile climate around the issue,” Ahmadi-nejad said.
“Those devils are against the implementation of justice. They know that when the shift from subsidies to welfare is made, then, first, there will be no poor people in the country, and, second, there will be a great drop in class differences. Third, there will be opportunities for accomplishing constructive tasks for the country’s development, for economic growth, for more jobs,” Ahmadi-nejad said.
The foreign “enemy” is a major focus of most of Ahmadi-nejad’s speeches. In his Mazandaran speech, he engaged in a call-and-response technique and the crowd knew how to respond. Noting that many people had been waiting hours to hear him, Ahmadi-nejad shouted: “You must be tired.”
The crowd shouted back: “No.”
“You aren’t tired?” Ahmadi-nejad asked.
“No,” the crowd roared back.
“Can I be sure?” the president asked.
“Yes,” the crowd responded.
“So, who is tired?” Ahmadi-nejad asked.
Without a pause, the crowd answered: “The enemy.”
“Who is tired?” Ahmadi-nejad asked again.
“The enemy,” the crowd shouted even louder.
