June 17, 2022
A group of 61 economists from universities all over the country has released a public statement saying the Islamic Republic’s policies of the last four decades only make things worse for the country.
The stinging indictment of public policy over all four decades since the revolution called on the government to change just about everything it does.
The lengthy statement said the government must start with two fundamental changes.
First, it said, the regime must change its foreign policy by adopting “a policy of coexistence and peaceful and dignified cooperation with neighbors … and major economic powers.” It said that must include reviving the JCPOA and coming into compliance with the banking rules of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Without that, it said, “We cannot talk about macroeconomic stability.”
Second, the statement said, simply laying out economic policies will accomplish little “without improving the quality of governance.” It then listed nine changes required, including: the absolute rule of law; transparency, an independent judiciary; reliable databases; and avoiding government monopolies.
The statement simply dismissed the “economic surgery” announced by President Raisi several weeks ago, saying the government’s goal wasn’t fundamental change but merely fiscal manipulation. The new policies, the 61 economists said, are merely “a temporary and quick measure for addressing the budget deficit amid sanctions and a global food price crisis. We cannot consider this an economic reform.”
The economists’ indictment was unflinching.
“Unfortunately, as a result of poor governance, we have been unable to take advantage of the golden opportunities of the country’s huge human and creative capital and oil revenues and the population window to achieve rapid economic growth. Since the beginning of the revolution, the country has earned more than $1.3 trillion from oil exports. During this period, the country entered a population window in which the age structure of the population was more suitable for rapid economic growth than ever before.
“However, the growth of the country’s per capita income in this period was less than one percent. During this period, social capital has sharply decreased, financial outflows and even large-scale layoffs of human capital have occurred, financial corruption has spread, and the destruction of natural resources and the environment has put our country on the brink of a long-term crisis.
“The average GDP growth of Iran in the period 1358 to 1399 [1979-2020] was about 1.6 percent, while the average growth of China, India, Turkey, Malaysia, the UAE and Pakistan in the same period was between 4 and 10 percent.… Iran’s share of the world economy in the same period has halved and has decreased from one percent to about 0.5 percent.”
The statement was unrelenting in its denunciation of the regime for incompetence and for putting politics and regime survival over sound policy considerations.
“In the current climate of the country, where the cloak of sanctity is worn over economic and social policy, any criticism of the government is considered a sign of malicious conspiracies against the system. Explicitly raising these issues by expert or academic circles can be costly.”
Most of the 61 economists who signed the statement are little known outside academic circles, but they included two politically prominent men who held office under President Mohammad Khatami: Mohammad Satarifar, who was head of the Plan and Budget Organization, and Mohammad-Hossain Sharifzadegan, who was minister of welfare.
