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    Iran’s inflation rate looks like it will soon rise again

    January 03, 2017

    The inflation rate is definitely not declining any longer and may again be rising.

    Inflation in the last Persian month, Dey, was measured at 9.6 percent by one measure used by the Central Bank, which was the highest rate in a year.  By the other measure the bank uses, inflation was low at 8.6 percent but unchanged for the third straight month, suggesting the decline had halted.

    As the accompanying chart shows, the measure that compares inflation with the same month in then previous year—the 9.6 percent figure—is a leading measure, one that tends to show where the other will go in succeeding months.  So, all that suggests inflation once again rising.

    That does not mean inflation is about to soar once again to 40 percent.  But it does mean that efforts to push inflation down into the range of global norms is increasing unlikely and that a rate of around 10 percent could become the norm for Iran.

    The CIA’s World Factbook follows inflation rates in 227 economies.  The latest table shows only 24 countries with inflation of 10 percent or higher while 163—or 72 percent of the world’s countries—have inflation running at 4 percent or lower.  Iran is nowhere near joining that family.

    The Central Bank has said the inflation rate for the last full Persian year was 11.9 percent.

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